Summerfield Estates 4 bedroom, 2 bath home with 1,750 sq.ft. New kitchen and master bath. Nice, easy care yard on quiet cul-de-sac. Offered for $769,000.00 and Sold for $769,000.00 by Pete Saxon Realty.
This month’s articles from MarketWatch, San Diego Union-Tribune, USAToday and the National Association of REALTORS all point to a stabilizing of the residential real estate market. The headlines all read negatively but the hyper appreciation of home prices could not continue unchecked. It’s good news for home buyers and a leveling of the playing field for buyers and sellers.
October 31, 2018
Home price appreciation slows
“The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city index rose a seasonally adjusted 0.1% and was 5.5% higher compared to its level a year ago, the lowest annual increase in 20 months,” reports MarketWatch. INVESTOPEDIA
October 30, 2018
San Diego home sales down 17.5%
Phillip Molnar of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports on CoreLogic statistics indicating that the total number of homes sold in the San Diego County region was the lowest level since 2007. The average sales price also slipped below the all time high reported in August.
Millennials buying homes
USAToday reports that, “Millennials are shrugging off those growing housing-market obstacles and snapping up homes in greater numbers as they land better jobs and bigger raises.” I believe home ownership is still a goal of many. It has been a lack of inventory, not lack of motivation that has stymied the market over the last couple of years.
Economist Robert Shiller does not predict another housing bubble
“While noting that home prices having been rising since 2012, Professor Robert Shiller of Yale University told CNBC: ‘A housing bubble is not much in evidence…It’s not the same. It’s more placid.’ He added, ‘I don’t expect a sharp turn in the housing market at this point,'” comments Shiller in an INVESTOPEDIA article.
Homeowners staying put longer
I’ve been sensing this all year and an article in MarketWatch confirms that homeowners just aren’t moving. In San Diego folks aren’t selling because there’s nowhere to move to in the local area. All my sellers in the last couple of years have moved out of state. This also means fewer homes available for first time home buyers and low inventory levels which has been the cause of high property value appreciation.
Repeat buyers getting older
USA Today reports, “Repeat buyers are getting older. The median age was 55 years, up from 54 last year,” along with other interesting statistics about today’s home buyers’ profile.
October 25, 2018
U. S. pending home sales up 0.5%
The National Association of REALTORS Pending Home Sales Index indicates that, “Pending home sales rose slightly in September and saw substantial increases in both the West and Midwest. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist notes that, “‘the lack of inventory of moderately priced homes and affordability as factors restraining the housing market but when viewed through the lens of the last few decades, the current affordability climate is still favorable. “’When compared to the year 2000, when the housing market was considered very healthy and home sales figures were roughly equivalent, the affordability conditions were much lower compared to now. So even though affordability has been falling recently, the demand for housing should remain steady.’”
This month’s real estate articles in local and national publications focus on slowing residential real estate price appreciation. Prices are still going up but at a slower pace. Your property’s value is dependent on real estate activity in your specific neighborhood. Prices and activity can vary on either side of a busy street depending on conditions in that specific location.
Be cautious when using the artificial intelligence property valuation tools like Zestimate or the ones you may find on your bank’s website. These are very generic and cannot know the specific conditions that effect property values in your location. They are marketing tools designed to entice you to contact them for information.
September 28, 2018
Median San Diego home price now $583k
‘San Diego County’s median home price hit an all-time high of $583,000 in August, real estate tracker CoreLogic reported,” writes Philip Molnar of the San Diego Union-Tribune.
September 27, 2018
U.S. pending home sales slow
“ Pending home sales fell slightly in August and have now decreased on an annual basis for eight straight months, according to the National Association of Realtors®.“
September 25, 2018
San Diego price increases slow to 6.2%
“Existing home prices in July for the San Diego metropolitan area increased 6.2 percent in a year, its slowest pace since January 2017, said the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices,” writes Phillip Molnar of the San Diego Union-Tribune.
U.S. home price increase slows
Dianna Olick of CNBC reports on S&P CoreLogic Case-Shilller twenty city index. “Las Vegas, Seattle and San Francisco continue to see the biggest annual gains in home prices, with increases of 13.7 percent, 12.1 percent and 10.8 percent respectively. Five of the 20 cities saw home price gains accelerate annually compared with June.”
September 24, 2018
More balanced market?
REALTOR.com data indicates, “Make no mistake: Prices are not exactly tumbling down—at least, not on the national level. And there’s no evidence on the horizon of a looming housing bubble about to pop and drag the world economy down with it. Median home list prices are still up 7% year over year this August, according to an analysis of realtor.com data.”
September 20, 2018
California home sellers dropping prices
“After three years of soaring home prices, the heat is coming off the U.S. housing market. Home sellers are slashing prices at the highest rate in at least eight years, especially in the West, where the price gains were hottest,” according to CNBC’s Dianna Olick.
U.S. existing home sales stable
MarketWatch reports “After falling for four straight months, sales of previously-owned homes stabilized in August. Existing-home sales were 1.5% lower than a year ago. And although sales seem to have stagnated in 2018, in the year to date, they’re only 1.2% lower than the same period a year ago.”
Fastest growing and declining U.S. housing markets
“Like anything else, home prices are driven by supply and demand forces, which are highly correlated with the area’s economy, job market, and population changes. Demand tends to be higher in stronger economies, with a healthy job market, and a growing population,” according to USAToday article.
August 31, 2018
County median price a record $579,600
“Home prices have been breaking records on nearly a month-to-month basis all year. As of July, home prices had increased 8 percent in a year — the most of any Southern California county,” according to CoreLogic and reported in the San Diego Union-Tribune. However, the article goes on to report that, “Home sales hit its lowest point in years in July with 3,607 sales. The last time sales were that low was July 2014, when the county was still coming out of the housing bust, when there were 3,530 sales.”
August 29, 2018
San Diego building permits up
“In the first six months of 2018, there were 6,953 residential permits issued in San Diego County, a 64 percent increase from the same time last year, said a new report from the Real Estate Research Council of Southern California,” reports Phillip Molnar of the San Diego Union-Tribune.
U.S. pending home sales off 7th straight month
Diana Olick of CNBC reports on National Association of REALTORS Pending Home Sales Index, “Signed contracts to buy existing homes fell 0.7 percent in July compared with June.” However, home prices continued to climb at a 6% rate across the country.
August 28, 2018
San Diego County home prices up 6.9%
Incredibly, the San Diego Union-Tribune’s headline read, San Diego home price increases fall behind other California cities. We are so conditioned to be attracted to the negative headline that any continued good news is not featured. An annual 6.9% increase on any investment is still an outstanding return in today’s investment climate.
August 28, 2018
Tax cuts have not depressed housing
“It wasn’t supposed to take long for the Trump tax cuts to hobble housing prices, particularly in the high-tax, high-cost metro areas where the new law was poised to rip federal incentives to buy new homes. Nearly nine months later, those warnings have not materialized.,” reports the New York Times.
August 20, 2018
$131K income to buy San Diego home
“Only two other metro areas were less affordable — San Jose and San Francisco — said the study, which crunched numbers for 50 regions across the United States,” reports Phillip Molnar of the San Diego Union-Tribune.
August 10, 2018
Impact of housing slump on REALTORS?
The San Diego Union-Tribune wonders, “What a home sales slump could mean for professionals, buyers.” The article implies that being a real estate agent in a booming market is easy and I couldn’t agree more. Real estate sells itself. I’ve never met a real estate broker that sold a property. Brokers only provide access to real estate listings then the buyers decide whether to purchase. I’ve never heard a buyer say, “Honey, stop the car! We have to buy that house, it’s listed by Joe Slick!”
“The housing market hit a sudden and “significant” slowdown in the past few weeks that could continue in coming months, Redfin Corp.’s chief executive said,” reports MarketWatch. Redfin operates as an actual real estate brokerage in some of the country’s most expensive markets and a slowdown in the highest priced markets always happens first. Another quick point, unlike Zillow, Trulia and even REALTOR.com, Redfin is a licensed real estate company with offices, brokers and real estate licensees. Zillow, Trulia and REALTOR.com are online media companies that are not licensed, not supervised and earn their income selling advertising, mostly to real estate licensees.
August 6, 2018
Affordability is the new housing crisis
Too few homes on the market is leading to a national affordability crisis reports NPR.
April 30, 2018
U.S. Pending home sales up slightly
“Signed contracts to purchase existing home rose just 0.4 percent in March compared to February, according to a monthly pending home sales index from the National Association of Realtors. February’s reading was revised down,” according to CNBC’s Diana Olick. Lack of inventory and rising interest rates were noted as reasons for the smaller increase.
April 25, 2018
County 7th highest price increase in U.S.
“The region’s home price increased by 7.6 percent in a year, said the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices. Seattle had the biggest increase in a year at 12.7 percent,” according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index and reported in the San Diego Union-Tribune.
April 24, 2018
Values jumped 6.3% across U.S.
CNBC‘s Dianna Olick reports, “Home values nationally jumped 6.3 percent in February compared with a year ago, according the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index.”
New median price record in county
“The median for a resale single-family home hit $608,750, a new peak, in March with 2,126 sales. Resale condos were at a median of $418,000 with 1,038 sales, and down from a peak of $425,000 reached in February. Newly built homes were a median of $619,500 with 365 sales, down from a peak of $792,250,” reports Phillip Molnar of the San Diego Union-Tribune about last month’s CoreLogic data.
April 11, 2018
How buying advice to ignore…
REALTOR.com article discusses common misconceptions home buyers can have concerning how to choose a property to buy. However, in this market with such a dramatic shortage of inventory buyers don’t have many options when choosing a property to purchase.
April 9, 2018
Prop 13 target of Sacramento
“Long discussed among liberal and Democratic activists, the proposed initiative would redefine Proposition 13’s limits on property taxes to focus mostly on homeowners. Commercially owned properties would be assessed at market values — a change the group believes could generate as much as $11 billion a year for local services and schools.” I’ll let you draw your own conclusions about this article in the San Diego Union-Tribune.
April 6, 2018
San Diego rents set record
“The average rent in San Diego County hit a record $1,887 a month in March, increasing 8 percent in a year, said a new report released this week,” reports Phillip Molnar in the San Diego Union-Tribune. That amount of monthly payment will buy approximately $425,000 in mortgage payments for a fully amortized 30 year loan at 5.25%.
April 5, 2018
Home buyers offering sight unseen
CNBC article states, “Already, house hunters are waiving inspections, making offers without even seeing homes and bidding well above asking price.” If you’re a seller in a market like this you need to be very careful accepting an offer from a buyer who hasn’t seen your property.
March 29, 2018
Remember subprime mortgages and the real estate depression in 2007? Well, guess what, the subprime mortgage bonds that finance these loans are back – again. CNBC reports that, “Home loans to people with scratches and dents in their credit histories dwindled to almost nothing in the aftermath of the crisis, as litigation-weary lenders retreated to patch up their balance sheets. But over the past couple of years a group of specialist firms has begun to bring the loans back, navigating a dense web of new rules drawn up to protect borrowers and investors in the $9.3tn US home-loan market.”
March 21, 2018
Home prices up 8.3% in February
“The market continued to be dominated by resale single-family homes, making up 1,630 sales in February. The median price reached $580,000, up 8.3 percent in a year,” according CoreLogic and reported in the San Diego Union-Tribune. “Sales continue to remain tight as there are fewer homes for sale than previous years. In February, there were 4,636 homes listed for sale in February, up by 221 homes from the same time last year, said the Greater San Diego Association of Realtors. But that is far off an an average 5,040 homes per sale each month in 2017; 5,909 in 2016; and 6,610 in 2015.”
March 20, 2018
San Diego top investment market
“San Diego has become a more favorable place for real estate investing among big money players across North and South America,” reports the San Diego Union-Tribune. “Real estate investing means pumping money into a local economy from construction of a new building or, what is more likely from investors surveyed, buying an old structure and fixing it up.”
March 16, 2018
Less new housing built in 2017
“Cities and the county issued 4 percent fewer residential building permits in 2017 than the previous year, said the Real Estate Research Council of Southern California in a report released this week.” writes Pillip Molnar in the San Diego Union-Tribune.
March 11, 2018
2,000 new apartments in San Diego
San Diego Union-Tribune story by Phillip Molnar reports on new San Diego County apartment construction, mostly in downtown’s East Village and Little Italy. For me, the most interesting part of the article deals with the decision by developers to build apartments and not condominiums because of their fear of construction defect litigation after the condo project is sold out. There literally are attorneys who mass mail new condominium project owners soliciting construction defect lawsuits.
March 9, 2018
This is great news!
“Getting a mortgage from a community bank or credit union could become easier, under a provision included in a banking regulatory bill under consideration in the Senate,” reports Sarah O’Brien of CNBC.
Home loan costs could go up
“Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC) , two government-sponsored enterprises that finance more than 45% of U.S. mortgages, could raise monthly mortgage payments by $400 based on new rules being discussed in Congress.,” according to an article in TheStreet.
March 7, 2018
Closed Sale – Escondido 1.3 acre lot
Lake Hodges view 1.3 acre lot. Gentle slope, private road, easy access to major shopping and freeways. Closed for $265,000.00 by Pete Saxon Realty.
December 28, 2017
San Diego median resale prices up 10.1%
The median resale home price in San Diego County in November 2017 was $600,000 according to the San Diego Union-Tribune. Lack of inventory for sale remains the driving force behind the price increase.
December 27, 2017
U.S. pending home sales flatten
“After a stronger-than-expected surge through much of the fall, home buyers took a breather in November. Signed contracts to buy existing homes were flat for the month, up just 0.2 percent from October, according to the National Association of Realtors’ seasonally adjusted monthly index of pending home sales,” reports Diana Olick of CNBC.
More CA people living in their cars
Very interesting article by Chris Reed predicting the Californians are, “going to decide to live in their cars, trucks, vans, campers and recreational vehicles — and once this demand is clear, automakers will start building more vehicles designed to be lived in, entrepreneurs will sell kits to convert existing vehicles into more comfortable homes and businesses will emerge that cater to vehicle dwellers’ needs.”
Recording fees going up
“New real estate recording fees will rise from $75 to $225 as of Jan. 1, under a new state law,” reports Roger Showley of the San Diego Union-Tribune. “County Assessor-Recorder-Clerk Ernest Dronenburg Jr. estimated about 40 percent of his 900,000 recordings a year will be subject to the fee.”
December 18, 2017
More San Diegans have roommates
“Roughly 38 percent of adults in San Diego County lived together in 2016, up from 28.6 percent in 2000, said research from real estate website Zillow,” The San Diego Union-Tribune article reports that, “Average rent in San Diego County hit an all-time high in September of $1,875 a month.”
December 12, 2017
Pending Sale – Poway
Lots of potential in this three bedroom, two bath, 1066 sq. ft. twin home. Walk to elementary school. Close to shopping, dining and entertainment. Now offered for $475,000.00 by Pete Saxon Realty
December 8, 2017
San Diego housing forecast
It will be the same story for housing in San Diego next as it has been for the last couple of years according to the San Diego Union-Tribune. Higher rents, and increasing home prices will continue in the region due to lack of inventory and no significant new housing on the horizon.
December 4, 2017
San Diego region housing crisis
This is an excellent article in the San Diego Union-Tribune by Roger Showley and Phillip Molnar. Back in the 1980’s I attended a seminar about San Diego County housing and one of the speakers, Alan Gin I think, predicted exactly this outcome. He predicted the San Diego region would become a service economy where only the most highly paid professionals like doctors, scientists and engineers would be able to afford housing. It is exactly what has happened.
November 30, 2017
Market taking a pause?
After years of posting similar stories about rising prices due to low inventory and low interest rates it may be that the market has reached its peak or may just be taking a pause. In San Diego the median sales price dropped almost $20,000 from June of 2016. I’m seeing price reductions on the MLS for the first time in a while. It will be a month or two before we know if dropping prices is a trend. My guess is that it’s a leveling off and a real estate bubble bursting.
Lots of potential in this three bedroom, two bath, 1066 sq. ft. twin home. Walk to elementary school. Close to shopping, dining and entertainment. Now offered for $499,000 by Pete Saxon Realty
November 29, 2017
San Diego median home price up 4.4%
Phillip Molnar of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports on CoreLogic data showing San Diego County home prices have increased 4.4% to $529,750 over October of last year. However, median prices have dropped below the all time high of $545,000 reached in June of this year.
November 28, 2017
San Diego third only to Seattle and Vegas
The S&P Case-Shiller 20 City Indices ranked San Diego County third in the country for price appreciation in September 2017 reports the San Diego Union-Tribune. San Diego home prices have risen 8.2% in a year.
Less expensive homes appreciate faster
There’s a well known cliche in real estate, “Buy the smallest, least expensive home in the best neighborhood” if you want the most appreciation. Diana Olick of CNBC writes about how lower priced homes are appreciating faster than their more expensive neighbors.
June 30, 2017
Ownership hits 50 year low
“The downward trend of home ownership began with the housing bubble burst and subsequent recession starting in late 2007, which resulted in as many as 10 million families losing their homes to foreclosure nationwide, according to the National Center for Policy Analysis. Not only were homeowners unable to pay off existing mortgages, but younger people entering the workforce for the first time were unable to qualify for mortgages, as lenders had to restrict lending practices dramatically,” according to CNBC.
June 29, 2017
County prices outpace U.S. and CA
“Low mortgage rates and lack of homes for sale throughout the nation are continuing to push prices up, wrote David Blitzer, managing chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, in the monthly report.” The San Diego Union-Tribune reports that San Diego County home prices increased 6.6% while prices increased 5.5% nationwide.
June 28, 2017
U.S. pending sales off for third month
Lack of inventory in the affordable price ranges across the country is still having a negative impact on pending home sales according to the National Association of REALTORS. “Pending home sales in the South declined 1.2 percent to an index of 123.4 in May and are now 1.4 percent below last May. The index in the West subsided 1.3 percent in May to 98.6, and is now 4.5 percent below a year ago. ”
California pending sales off for fifth month
” California pending home sales fell for the fifth consecutive month, suggesting the state’s housing market may underperform over the next few months, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) reported. Pending sales in San Diego, San Bernardino, and Los Angeles counties declined from last May, but those counties had drops of less than 5 percent.” It’s all about inventory. How many For Sale signs have you noticed in your neighborhood?
Mortgage application drop 6%
Diana Olick of CNBC reports that, “Mortgage rates have been sitting at a six-month low for the past month, barely moving, but mortgage demand is still shrinking. Total application volume fell 6.2 percent last week, compared to the previous week. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted application index is now down 17 percent compared to the same week one year ago.” It’s not so much that buyers aren’t ready to buy, there’s just no inventory.”
June 21, 2017
County median price hits $530,000
“The San Diego County median home price hit $530,000 in May, breaking the nominal record set last month and increasing 8.2 percent in a year, real estate tracker CoreLogic reported,” reports the San Diego Union-Tribune.
June 14, 2017
1% down payment mortgage
So, here we go again. The San Diego Union-Tribune reports on a new mortgage offering by Guild Mortgage that allows for a 1% down payment. These very highly leveraged loans can be a problem when real estate values slip just a little bit creating “underwater” loans.
Beautiful three bedroom, three bath, 2,598 sq.ft. executive home on 1.75 acres. Attached guest quarters includes bath and kitchenette. Offered for $889,000 by Pete Saxon Realty.